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Monday, October 28, 2013
Crisis of Infinite Assists
By Clive Windstrom, Staff Writer
Take apart your bed. There's a good chance there's a big sack hidden underneath the mattress. A big sack of coins. Not quarters, not a pounds, not a ten hwon-er. It's all DIMES.
Yes, this year in The Court Electric, there's, dimes are in short supply coming into Unrestricted Free Agency aka the auction. Never has one category been so thoroughly depleted. Heck, even points - elite scoring - that standard-bearer of success, has been and will be easier to find in the auction.
Of the top 36 most valuable assists guys (3 per team), none of the top 12 and perhaps seven of them total are available. And that's talking some pretty one-dimensional guys: players like Greivis Vasquez and Steve Nash that don't do much of anything in the other two of the Big Three categories (Pts/Rebs/Asts).
Teams that are coming into UFA weak in assists might have to punt it altogether. Shake N Jake, for example, with the Super Kevins always seem to be in position to be a serious contender. But with iffy Jeremy Lin and the Durantula their only real sources of assists, will the team have such an Achilles' Heel they are doomed to be second-tier? After all, if you have no chance at assists, you almost have to win points and rebounds to even the playing field on the game. And with assists so rare in the auction, if SnJ do stretch for the dime, will they end starting such weak guards that Durant and Love's premium scoring output is effectively blunted?
Despite Chris Paul helming the squad, The Unnamed also look very weak at assists. Their keepers are almost entirely focused on size, though, so they can certainly bolster that number even with shooting guards and small forwards. Their bigs, like McGee, Lopez, and Ibaka, though, are particularly poor dime guys at the 4 and 5, and in total they basically bring Paul back to a good-not-great PG. Hoping a guy like KCP is going to contribute meaningfully his rookie year is quite a long-shot indeed.
My assists rankings for the auction:
Legit guys
1. Steve Nash - I still think he's worth it. I see an uptick from last year to a 13-3-8 kind of guy, with the great percentages. I'd go 8 million dollars for a one year deal.
2. Greivis Vasquez - If he wins the position and the Kings commit to him, I love him. But if the rotation continues to be a mess and Isiah Thomas, Marcus Thorton, and even Jimmer Fredette mulk General Greivis down to less than 28 minutes a games, ouch. 6 million bucks.
3. Ray Felton - I don't get the anti-love. Sure, the Carmelo Knicks offense is probably going to about the lowest assist per possession rate in the league, but a) Felton is unopposed at the point and b) the DO play up-tempo. You need a reliable six, maybe seven dimes without killing the rest of your cats? Felton's the guy to do it. I actually consider him the number one most reliable point in the auction. Wince but swallow the 7 million it could take to get him. Or maybe no wants him and you get him for value. 4 mil and you're golden.
4. Jammer Nelson - Yes, this is how thin PG is. He might be traded, but he IS going to play; the Magic can't showcase him if he's sitting and they would have bought him out if he was going to ride the pine. 13-3-6 and a lot of threes isn't bad at all. 5 million bucks.
5. Andre Iguodala - Not a PG - SG, though he's really a pure SF - this guy is better for your assists than the rest of the PGs available. Start him at Swingman along with two or three point guards, and you'll be fine. Given his steals, I'd go 8 million #want and throw him a two-year.
6. Kobe Bryant - Again, at this level you have to get creative. Sure, you're probably buying on Kobe for scoring, not assists, but if you're hurting at PG you might have to superpay star money to Kobe just to survive. He's going to play, and he's going to be okay. Too much pride. If you can eat the drain on him missing the first three weeks or so, you'll get 25-5-5 the rest of the way at Swingman. 12 million this year, or go 14 for two. He'll still be playing next year - the perfect guy to overpay on if you plan on being a 2014-15 contender.
7. George Hill - Don't laugh. He's barely a true point, but he plays the position reliably and will get his five assists. He's actually a neutral scorer, too, netting probably like 14 or 15 a game. You could do a lot worse for 5 million dollars.
8. Jarrett Jack - He's a backup, but not exactly a regular backup. He's gonna get 28 minutes a game, and if Kyrie Irving gets hurt yet again, he'll actually be a Kyle Lowry type. 11-2-5 with upside. You may be able to snag him for a mil.
Sleepers
- Jamaal Tinsley - Who knows how long Trey Burke is going to be out, and while he can still condition, he'll be months behind actually playing. Tinsley might take this job for half the season and get you some cheap assists. If you can swallow hard at the under-10 scoring, you've got a legitimate starting PG for probably 600,000$.
- Patrick Beverly - If the Rockets decide mid-season that Jeremy Lin really just needs the ball in his hands to be worth his contract, and they're certainly not going to take it from Harden, Beverly could be the guy. 11-3-6? Sure, if he plays.
- Reggie Jackson - Westbrook might be gone longer than you think, and, even after that, unless you believe Jeremy Lamb really is a young Kevin Martin, he's still going to play.
Collect your pennies, kids, because you'll need all you can save if you're going to get DIMES in the auction. It's gonna be more like 13 pennies to a dime given the scarcity!
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